The National Treasury has projected a 13.4% increase in government revenue for the fiscal year 2024/25, with collections expected to reach Sh 3,115.5 billion, up from Sh 2,747.8 billion in 2023/24.
This growth is set to be driven largely by enhanced tax administration and improved compliance, as tax revenue is anticipated to hit Sh 2,535.6 billion.
Non-tax revenue will contribute Sh 529.6 billion, while grants from development partners are projected at Sh 50.3 billion.
Despite the increase in revenue, the national government’s total expenditure is forecast to surge to Sh 3,978.3 billion from Sh 3,605.2 billion in the previous fiscal year, leading to a projected budget deficit of Sh 862.7 billion.
The country’s debt burden remains significant, with the national government’s total debt stock estimated at Sh 9,955.6 billion as of June 2024.
Correspondingly, interest payments on this debt are expected to rise sharply to Sh 995.8 billion in 2024/25, up from Sh 840.7 billion the year before.
At the county level, total revenue is projected to grow to Sh 521.8 billion, from Sh 504.4 billion in 2023/24.
This includes Sh 387.4 billion from the equitable share of nationally raised revenue, Sh 49.0 billion in conditional grants, and Sh 7.4 million in unconditional grants.
Counties are also expected to generate Sh 85.4 billion from own-source revenue, while total county expenditure is projected at Sh 551.4 billion.
Meanwhile, the General Government Sector which excludes public corporations reported a 7.3% increase in total revenue to Sh 3,489.2 billion in 2023/24.
Tax revenue accounted for 66.9% of this figure.
However, overall expenditures rose to Sh 3,972.4 billion from Sh 3,554.6 billion in 2022/23, underscoring the persistent fiscal pressure facing the government.
The projections come amid ongoing debates over Kenya’s fiscal sustainability and the need for structural reforms to reduce reliance on borrowing while ensuring efficient public spending.
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