A fresh opinion poll has injected new momentum into the increasingly competitive race for the Nairobi gubernatorial seat, with Embakasi East MP Babu Owino emerging as the leading candidate ahead of incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja.
The survey by Mizani Africa, conducted between August 21 and 28, 2026, placed Babu Owino at 28.4%, narrowly ahead of businesswoman Agnes Kagure, who polled 27.2%. Sakaja followed at 17.0%, while Nairobi County Assembly Speaker James Gakuya recorded 15.0%.
The poll sampled 1,820 registered voters drawn proportionately from all 17 constituencies in Nairobi County. It reported a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±2.3 percentage points.
The findings have added another interesting dimension to what is shaping up to be a closely watched contest for control of Kenya’s capital ahead of the August 2027 General Election.
Babu edges ahead
Babu Owino ‘s 28.4% showing gives him an early advantage in the survey, although the numbers also reveal that the contest is far from settled.
His lead over Kagure is only 1.2 percentage points, meaning the difference falls within the poll’s margin of error.
Sakaja, meanwhile, trails the two leading contenders by a more significant margin, while Gakuya remains within striking distance.
The poll also found that 8.1% of respondents were undecided, creating a sizeable voting bloc that could dramatically alter the standings as the election draws closer.
With no candidate commanding an outright majority, the numbers suggest that Nairobi voters are yet to settle on a clear favourite.
Sakaja faces fight to defend City Hall
Sakaja, who took over as Nairobi governor in 2022, will be seeking another term if he decides to defend his position at City Hall.
During his tenure, his administration has placed considerable emphasis on programmes targeting education, healthcare, mobility, sanitation and sports infrastructure.
One of the administration’s most visible initiatives has been Dishi na County, the school feeding programme designed to provide meals to learners in public primary schools.
Nairobi County has described the programme as a key part of Sakaja’s education agenda.
The governor’s administration has also highlighted projects involving roads, street lighting, healthcare facilities, sports grounds and efforts to improve the cleanliness of the capital.
These achievements are likely to form an important part of Sakaja’s campaign narrative as he seeks to convince Nairobi residents that his administration deserves another term.
However, the latest Mizani Africa survey indicates that service delivery alone may not be enough to guarantee a comfortable re-election.
Babu’s Nairobi ambitions
For Owino, the poll provides a boost to his long-standing ambitions of moving from Parliament to City Hall.
The Embakasi East MP has already declared his intention to contest the Nairobi gubernatorial seat in 2027, setting the stage for a potential showdown with Sakaja.
Owino has built a strong political profile since entering elective politics and has represented Embakasi East in the National Assembly since 2017.
Parliament lists Paul Ongili Owino, popularly known as Babu Owino, among the members of the National Assembly.
His political appeal has particularly resonated with sections of Nairobi’s younger electorate, while his outspoken style has consistently kept him in the national political spotlight.
The 2027 race could therefore become a contest not only between personalities but also between competing visions of how Nairobi should be governed.
Agnes Kagure factor
Perhaps the biggest surprise in the latest survey is Kagure’s strong performance.
With 27.2%, she is statistically within striking distance of Owino.
Her showing means the Nairobi contest cannot simply be viewed as a two-horse race between Owino and Sakaja.
If Kagure maintains her momentum, she could significantly reshape the political calculations ahead of the election.
Gakuya’s 15% also means that there is another established Nairobi political figure in the race, potentially creating a crowded field that could split the vote.
Earlier surveys paint a different picture
The latest poll should also be viewed against the backdrop of other surveys that have produced different results.
A Darubini poll reported in May 2026, for instance, placed Sakaja ahead of Owino, with the incumbent receiving 48% compared with Owino’s 31% among the respondents surveyed.
An online Kenya Poll Watch poll conducted later also showed Owino leading Sakaja, although that platform itself cautions that its online polls are not scientific election forecasts and had only a small number of votes.
Similarly, an InfoTrak national political survey released in July 2026 showed Owino attracting 6% support in Nairobi when respondents were asked about preferred presidential candidates, illustrating that results can vary considerably depending on the question asked and the methodology used.
The contrasting findings underline an important point: the 2027 Nairobi governor race is still wide open.
Undecided voters could hold the key
With 8.1% of respondents yet to decide, the eventual outcome could change substantially once campaigns intensify.
Political parties are expected to begin sharpening their strategies as candidates seek to consolidate support across Nairobi’s diverse constituencies.
For Owino, the challenge will be converting his current polling advantage into a broad countywide coalition.
For Sakaja, the task will be to defend his record while addressing voters who may be dissatisfied with his administration.
Kagure, meanwhile, has an opportunity to turn her strong polling numbers into a serious campaign, while Gakuya could also become a significant player.
For now, the Mizani Africa survey gives Owino bragging rights, but with more than a year to go before Kenyans head to the ballot, Nairobi’s City Hall battle is far from decided.
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