President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna have emerged as joint frontrunners in Kenyans’ preferred choice for the 2027 presidential election, according to a new survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA).
The survey, conducted between October 26 and November 5, 2026, places the two leaders at nearly equal levels of popularity, pointing to a potentially competitive race between the incumbent president and the emerging opposition figure.
TIFA notes that the findings reflect respondents’ preferred presidential winner, rather than whether they intend to vote or expect a particular candidate to win.
The survey also shows that other opposition and potential presidential candidates collectively command 19 per cent support. This means Sifuna could potentially reach the 50 per cent mark if their support were consolidated behind him. However, TIFA cautions that such an outcome cannot be assumed because of competition among opposition leaders and the political advantages enjoyed by an incumbent president.
The findings place Sifuna in a prominent position among potential opposition candidates, raising the possibility that he could emerge as a leading contender if opposition parties agree to rally behind a single candidate.
A comparison with TIFA’s previous three surveys suggests that Sifuna’s growing popularity has largely come at the expense of other opposition figures rather than President Ruto.
The research firm observed that his rise was unusually pronounced compared with patterns recorded in previous pre-election surveys dating back to at least 1997. It noted that the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s continued presence in previous presidential contests had influenced the political landscape during those election cycles.
TIFA said it was still too early to determine whether Ruto and Sifuna had reached their peak levels of support. Their popularity could change once the presidential candidates and their running mates are formally identified.
Further surveys are expected to provide a clearer picture of how voters’ preferences develop as the 2027 General Election approaches.
Although Ruto and Sifuna are almost tied in overall presidential preference, the survey shows a difference in their support bases.
Ruto commands 83 per cent support among respondents who identify with the broad-based government (BBG), while Sifuna attracts 66 per cent support among those opposed to the arrangement.
The findings raise questions about whether supporters of other opposition hopefuls would eventually rally behind Sifuna or another candidate if opposition parties agree on a joint presidential flagbearer.
TIFA also found that a significant proportion of undecided respondents had limited knowledge or interest in the broad-based government arrangement. Among those yet to settle on a preferred presidential candidate, 36 per cent had no opinion about the BBG, while 43 per cent said they did not know what it was.
The survey’s findings among supporters of different political parties reveal strong loyalty to several party leaders.
Most UDA supporters prefer President Ruto, while supporters of the Linda Mwananchi movement favour Sifuna. Wiper supporters largely back Kalonzo Musyoka, while Jubilee supporters favour former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, although his support within the party stands at 57 per cent.
One notable finding is that Sifuna is more popular than former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua among supporters of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), attracting 34 per cent compared with Gachagua’s 25 per cent.
Sifuna also comes close to Ruto among ODM supporters, with 33 per cent backing the Nairobi senator compared with 42 per cent for the President.
Apart from Matiang’i, Ruto is more popular among Jubilee supporters than any of the potential opposition candidates included in the survey.
The survey also points to growing support for Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi movement, which has emerged as the second-most-supported political formation, overtaking ODM in the latest findings.
The development signals a changing opposition landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election, with Sifuna increasingly featuring in discussions about a possible united opposition candidate.
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