The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a warning of persistent dry conditions across East Africa, including Kenya, following two months of below-average rainfall.
In an advisory released on Thursday, November 20, NOAA reported that the continued lack of rain has led to abnormal dryness across the region, affecting Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and parts of Uganda and western Ethiopia.
“Over the past week, little to light rainfall was observed across many parts of East Africa, including western Ethiopia, Uganda, the Lake Victoria region, and several areas in central Kenya,” the agency noted.
NOAA forecasts similarly low rainfall in the coming week for western Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Uganda. Rwanda, Burundi, and much of Tanzania are expected to receive light to moderate showers.
The agency warned that the unusually dry conditions in November typically a short-rains season could heighten the risk of food shortages and other drought-related impacts.
However, NOAA predicts heavy rainfall in southern Africa, with South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Namibia expected to receive above-average precipitation.
The outlook aligns with a recent forecast from the Kenya Meteorological Department, which also projected continued sunny and dry weather in most regions, including Nairobi and Mombasa.
The department’s November 17 update indicated that the Rift Valley, Central Kenya, the Coast, and parts of the Lake Victoria Basin would remain largely dry, with only isolated light rains expected in the southeastern lowlands and select counties around Lake Victoria.
Counties likely to see light showers include Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, and Nakuru.
Kenya Met also cautioned that the Highland East region covering Nairobi, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Tharaka Nithi, and Nyeri will continue to experience cold nights.
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