Former Senior Economic Advisor to President William Ruto, Moses Kuria, has warned that April could be one of the most difficult economic periods in recent times, citing the global ripple effects of escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Kuria cautioned that tensions involving Iran could disrupt global energy supply chains, particularly through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
“April will be the toughest and most brutal month of all times. The real effects of the regrettable war in Iran will take a toll on the global economy,” Kuria said.
He explained that possible disruptions in oil supply could sharply drive up fuel costs in Kenya. “The Hormuz effects of energy supply disruptions will hammer the global economy. In countries like Kenya, pump prices could rise to between Sh230 and Sh250 per litre,” he stated.
Despite the looming pressure, Kuria cautioned against short-term policy responses. “There will be pressure and temptations to apply knee-jerk solutions such as subsidies and foregoing tax revenues. This must be avoided at all costs,” he said.
He warned that interfering with recent economic gains could have lasting consequences. “Messing up the macroeconomic gains achieved so far will come with consequences that cannot be undone even two years after the war,” he added.
Kuria urged Kenyans to brace for the impact, describing it as inevitable. “As a nation, we must collectively swallow the bitter Hormuz inflation pill,” he said.
He also called for restraint among global leaders, expressing hope for de-escalation. “We hope that leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump, and the leadership in Tehran will come back to their senses to save the world,” Kuria remarked.
The warning comes amid growing global uncertainty in energy markets, with analysts cautioning that prolonged instability in key oil transit routes could have far-reaching economic consequences.
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